Optimizing human under uncertainty

It appears that humans did not cultivate skills of optimization under uncertainty. This is likely because for most of their time on the blue planet, their horizons were very limited with most decisions made with low uncertainty. In the last hundred years, it dramatically changed, many sporting lifespans well in excess of three times the original humans. Now, human decisions have to systematically consider future uncertainty and flexibility to optimize life.

If happiness is the singular parameter in the human objective function, optimization under uncertainty is a hard math problem. Humans are exposed to sequential decisions with options characteristics, and the decision options tree one needs to consider is complex. As future decisions are intricately connected with present decisions, any human decision to maximize happiness will have to consider all future possibilities. And, this differs from person to person and is likely not generalizable.

Although it is a difficult problem to solve, one could create a few heuristics that may be true for most.

  1. Committing suicide is likely suboptimal unless future uncertainty substantially narrows and the aggregate remaining disutility is high

The time is limited, uncertainty high and optimization not well understood.

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Gill Eapen is the founder and CEO of Decision Options ®, Mr. Eapen has over 30 years of experience in strategy, finance, engineering, and general management

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Gill Eapen

Gill Eapen is the founder and CEO of Decision Options ®, Mr. Eapen has over 30 years of experience in strategy, finance, engineering, and general management