There are too few people in the World

Excess deaths from Covid is estimated to be 20 Million worldwide. This is the total number of deaths seen since the pandemic, over and above long run expectations. If the pandemic continues as it appears likely due to a plethora of mutations and short half-lives of the mRNA technology, a reasonable expectation could be 40 Million deaths, over 0.5% of the population. We can likely double this to a full percentage point as heart attacks, strokes and CNS effects are beginning to surface in survivors world over. If the arrival of a real vaccine is delayed by more than a few years, the overall toll we will suffer is anybody’s guess.

A 2020 study published by The Lancet projects that world population will peak in 2064 at 9.7 Billion and then decline to 8.8 billion by 2100. That was before the pandemic. With shock of Covid included, we may be reaching a peak world population of just around 9 Billion in just a few decades from now. This assumes no future disasters, which is too optimistic.

Reproductive rates have been falling World over. Minimum rate needed to keep existing population is 2.1 and we will fall below that rate this decade.

We need to now adjust these pre Covid expectations, knocking it down by as much as 10%. The compounded effect of this over a few decades can be disastrous.

What does this mean? It may be time to start worrying about humans being the most scarce resource on Earth. As the terrestrial Martians attempt to make Mars great again, it may be important to understand that the real problem to solve is much closer. It is not that we have too many people, we will end up with too few.

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Gill Eapen is the founder and CEO of Decision Options ®, Mr. Eapen has over 30 years of experience in strategy, finance, engineering, and general management

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Gill Eapen

Gill Eapen

Gill Eapen is the founder and CEO of Decision Options ®, Mr. Eapen has over 30 years of experience in strategy, finance, engineering, and general management

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